100,000 people could die as a result of
their drinking over next ten years
Almost 100,000 people could die over the next ten years as a direct result of their drinking, according to Alcohol Concern, on the basis of a report they commissioned from the Alcohol & Health Research Unit at the University of the West of England, released to coincide with the start of Alcohol Awareness Week in England in October 2009. The report, ‘Future Proof’, suggests that in the UK 90,800 people could die avoidable deaths from alcohol-related causes by 2019 if the population continue to drink at the average rate of the past 15 years.
The report also highlights ONS statistics which show that deaths from alcohol are highest among older people, supporting Alcohol Concern’s view that the focus on encouraging ‘sensible drinking’ among young people should be widened to target the whole population.
Trends in per capita alcohol consumption and alcoholrelated deaths for the whole UK in the years 1984 – 2008
Commenting on ‘Future Proof’, Professor Ian Gilmore, President of the Royal College of Physicians and Chair of the Alcohol Health Alliance UK said:
“Over the next decade alcohol misuse is set to kill more people than the population of a city the size of Bath. Much of this tragic loss of life, often in young and otherwise productive people, could be prevented if our policymakers followed the evidence for what works. Confronting the culture of low prices and saturation advertising, along with investment in accessible, effective treatments for harmful and dependent drinkers could make a big impact on what is becoming a public health emergency.
” Professor Martin Plant, lead author of the work said:
“The UK has been experiencing an epidemic of alcohol-related health and social problems that is remarkable by international standards. It is strongly recommended that reducing mortality should be the top priority for alcohol control policy. This could be done by introducing a minimum unit price of 50p which would cut alcoholrelated hospital admissions, crimes and absence days from work.
Only 100,000?
Launching the report, Alcohol Concern made the astonishing claim that it broke new ground in calculating the relationship between alcohol consumption and mortality for the first time in the UK, a claim repeated in the published summary of the report itself. In reality, the relationship has been studied extensively over many years, with numerous researchers concluding that alcohol is the cause of rather more deaths than the 9,000 or so per annum suggested in ‘Future Proof’. An Oxford University research team estimated that in 2005 there were 31,000 deaths attributable to alcohol in the UK. The discrepancy derives from the different methodologies employed, with the Alcohol Concern report including only diseases directly caused by alcohol and alcohol poisoning, but excluding deaths caused indirectly by alcohol, such as those from drink-driving or cancers which have been caused in part by drinking.
Key Findings from ‘Future Proof’
The report states that alcohol consumption in the UK has increased rapidly in recent years so that the UK is now among the heaviest alcohol consuming countries in Europe. In England, over a third of men report drinking over 21 units in an average week and among women a fifth report an average weekly consumption of over 14 units. In Wales, nearly 40% of adults admit to consuming more than the recommended limits. In Scotland, 1 in 3 men and 1 in 4 women exceed recommended daily limits. Across Britain, 1.1 million adults are alcohol dependent. It is estimated that the annual cost of alcohol misuse to the NHS is £2.7 billion in 2006-07 prices. In 2008 the government estimated that the total cost of harm from alcohol was between £17.7 and £25.1 billion per year.
Extra alcohol-related deaths over 10 years assuming different rates of increase in per capita alcohol consumption
Link between consumption and harm
The research presents a clear correlation between increase in alcohol consumption per capita and the number of additional deaths that would occur as a consequence. Findings suggest that an increase of one litre in per capita consumption would be associated with approximately 928 extra alcohol-related deaths in the UK per year. Given the average increase in per capita consumption of 0.0875 litres over the past 15 years, an extra 810 deaths would occur across the UK over the next 10 years if the country continues to drink at the rate of the past 15 years. In Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales, these levels of association between consumption and mortality were the strongest, the effect of consumption levels being evident immediately in mortality rates. In England, there was a one-year time lag between consumption changes and mortality.
Future Proof – Can We Afford the Cost of Drinking Too Much? - How to stem the tide of alcohol harms
The report says that because of the link between consumption and harm, the government’s strategy should be to lower overall alcohol consumption levels for the whole population, targeting a reduction in heavy drinking amongst all age groups. Price is the most effective, effi cient and evidence-based lever to achieve this. Therefore, policies should include the introduction of a minimum price per unit of alcohol to stamp out loss-leading and the sale of high volumes of alcohol at very low prices, especially in off-licenses and supermarkets. Government should also consider a revision of alcohol duty, linking it to product strength in order to encourage both the production and consumption of lower alcohol beverages.
Other recommendations are that all alcohol products should show mandatory unit and health information, including the sensible drinking guidelines, and brief intervention and advice should routinely take place in all primary health and social care settings to help identify those that are drinking at unsafe levels. International evidence and practice shows there is a reduction in the health care needs and associated costs if front line services are able to identify at an early stage those who are drinking too much and help them reduce their consumption, directly or through referral to specialist services.