Each new year, millions of people across the UK cut back on alcohol or give it up altogether during January. But does this month-long break actually change how much we drink in the long run?
The rise of alcohol-free and low-alcohol drinks
Alcohol-free and low-alcohol drinks (known as no/lo drinks) are increasingly popular. Supermarkets, pubs, and restaurants across the UK often stock these products. In 2023, Brits bought 78 million litres of no/lo drinks, worth £362 million. That is about 1.4% of all alcohol sales in the country.
Many people see no/lo drinks as a healthier option. Studies suggest that when they are available, some drinkers swap regular beer or cider for no/lo versions, rather than just adding them on top of their usual drinking. This could mean real public health benefits.
Why January matters
January is a period where many people think about how much alcohol they drink. After the festive season, people often want a reset and many stop drinking temporarily. Dry January®, run by Alcohol Change UK, aims to help people cut down on alcohol for the month. In 2023, more than 175,000 officially signed up for the full programme of support, but millions more tried it informally.
The big question: do these efforts actually shift alcohol sales at the population level? If enough people cut down, we should see changes in sales data, not just in self-reported surveys.
What the study did
Researchers at the University of Sheffield looked at nearly ten years of sales data across Britain, covering pubs, bars, restaurants, shops and supermarkets. They wanted to see:
- Do alcohol sales dip in January?
- Do no/lo sales rise at the same time?
- Do these changes last beyond January?
What the study found
Short-term impact
Alcohol sales do dip in January. Compared to other months, people buy fewer alcoholic drinks once the New Year celebrations are over. No/lo drinks also get a boost. More people reach for alcohol-free or low-strength alternatives in January than in February, March, or the autumn months. This means that the market shifts slightly, and a bigger share of total drinks sold in January are no/lo compared to other months.
Long-term impact
However, the changes don’t always stick. By February, alcohol sales bounce back, and the boost in no/lo drink sales fades. There were some signs that repeated January dips may have pushed alcohol sales in shops down over time, suggesting a sustained fall in alcohol consumption, but this was uncertain.
Interestingly, no/lo drinks sold well in December and the summer months, when overall alcohol consumption was highest. This suggests people may use them to pace themselves at parties or enjoy social occasions without drinking alcohol. So, no/lo products are not just a “January trend”. They are becoming part of the wider drinking culture in the UK and could play a bigger role in supporting moderation year-round. It remains unclear though whether they are just another tool for moderation or are triggering larger shifts in people’s drinking.
What this means
This study suggests that while efforts to cut down on alcohol during January clearly show up in national sales data, the impact is temporary. People do drink less alcohol and more no/lo drinks in January, but most return to their usual patterns once the month ends. However, this does not mean that these efforts are wasted. Even a month off alcohol can have health benefits, like better sleep, lower blood pressure, and improved mood.
For campaigners and policymakers, this raises an important point: one-off challenges like Dry January may help individuals reset their habits, particularly when undertaken alongside wider support, but they are not enough on their own to shift the population’s overall level of alcohol consumption in the long term. Stronger or more sustained interventions may be needed to leverage initiatives like Dry January and create a springboard for longer term change.
Written by Aisha Moolla, PhD Student at The University of Sheffield.
All IAS Blogposts are published with the permission of the author. The views expressed are solely the author’s own and do not necessarily represent the views of the Institute of Alcohol Studies.