Autumn Budget Analysis 2025

In the Autumn Budget 2025 there were three key announcements:

1. All alcohol duty rates will go up by RPI inflation in February 2026
2. Small Producer Relief will be increased
3. The National Licensing Policy Framework was published

After the increase, alcohol duty will still be much lower than it was in 2012/13. In real terms:

• Beer duty will be 32% lower
• Draught beer duty will be 42% lower
• Cider and spirits duty will be 26% lower
• Draught cider duty will be 36% lower
• Wine duty will be 19% lower

Alcohol trade bodies responded with predictable misinformation and provably wrong economic analysis.

Cumulatively, duty cuts from 2013/14 onwards will have cost the Treasury £31.2 billion from 2013-2031, compared with if duty had been raised in line with inflation.

Recommendations:

• Raise alcohol duty above inflation each year, targeting off-trade alcohol.
• Ultimately, develop a mechanism that ensures alcohol duty rates cover the external cost of alcohol harm to society and incentivises alcohol producers to reduce harm.
• Equalise cider duty rates with that of beer of the same strength (ABV).
• Separate the licensing of on- and off-trade licensed premises, seizing the opportunity of the licensing reforms, particularly to tackle the harmful impact of off-trade alcohol e.g. rapid online deliveries.